Can you predict stock price manipulation with Tweets?
On the basis of no news whatsoever, the price of Oxbridge Re Holdings Limited (OXBR) spiked from $1 at the close on 25th September 2020 to a high of $9.62 the next day. By the close yesterday it had slumped back down to $2.
Was this stock manipulated by players unknown who had accumulated stock at $1 and who then dumped shares on the way up? If so, what was the identity of these manipulators?
I can not say whether the stock was manipulated and if so by whom. The price had done nothing on negligible volume all month and then suddenly spiked on huge turnover.
Here is the price chart and the daily tweet count. Did manipulators start promoting this stock via Twitter prior to its meteoric rise?
As you can see, on a daily basis, the results do not look particularly promising. There were few if any tweets prior to the day of the meteoritic rise on 28th September 2020.
Does the picture look any more rosy if you download minute stock prices for 28th September and compare the price line by line with tweets published minute by minute?
No, the results are equally unimpressive.
Tweets turned out to be purely reactive, with no predictive value. People started frantically tweeting as the stock price was rising, not before it rose. The price had already risen significantly in the pre markets before twittering began in earnest and no one much commented on it.
You may as well have relied on the rising stock price and volume to give your your entry signal. And ignored the twittering altogether.
Laughably, it was not until much later in the day that the clownish penny stock promoters dropped by on Twitter and claimed they had profited hugely from the stellar stock price rise.
Were such clowns too busy dumping stock they had already bought over the previous few days to crow over their victory?
Or was there any victory? Were the marketing clowns who sell stock tips and promotional videos in fact out of the game altogether, and merely claiming a victory later in the day for trades they had failed to make?
I do not know the answers to these questions. And of course a single stock example is ludicrous. A sample size of one tells us nothing. However, the results do not look encouraging.
I think maybe one stock’s sample size is too small. Or maybe check abnormal volumes before the previous days. Perhaps a range of stocks will be better.
Perhaps the days of open pumping are gone. Perhaps the pumpers simply manipulate the stock in the illiquid pre and aftermarkets. I lookes at a few more with the same result. Perhaps it is worth looking at a few hundred examples and yet……